Bitcoin (BTCUSD) (3-day/8-hour comparison)
Bitcoin hit a new All-Time High two times last week, with a swift rejection at the $69k area. Bulls stepped back in during the final hours of last night’s Weekly & 3D candle closes and there is a case for continuation upwards if they can conquer $66k.
Looking at our 3D range, the red resistance box hasn’t given much trouble, as the price continues to grind up through, consolidating. This is typically thought to be bullish, to consolidate just beneath resistance. Further bullish evidence on our 8hr chart, where support stepped in nicely in our orange “neutral/continuation” zone following the latest high.
Bears will gain the upper hand if we see candle closes below $62k, which would bring mid $50ks into play, possibly even lower. For now, bulls appear to be in control, but be prepared.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) (3-day/8-hour comparison)
Ethereum has had a much different price action than BTC with a steady uptrend for the past month, with almost no corrections.
We are consolidating beneath resistance on our 3D range, and have made it into our range extension targets on our 8-hour range. A bullish ETH should provide bullish conditions for the altcoin markets in general, and if we continue into price discovery on ETH, things should get very interesting.
Bears could halt this momentum with a break below $4000, which would likely cascade deep into the $3000s. So far, there is little evidence of this being on the horizon, but that could of course change at any time.
Fundamentals & Correlations (Weekly)
The Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) hasn’t changed much, even with BTC hitting new highs multiple times recently. This is somewhat surprising, but also suggests that BTC has yet to have topped. We’ve seen in the past that when Bitcoin goes truly parabolic, it sucks up all the action in the market, with the dominance percentage soaring into the 60-80% range. These conditions currently look safe for altcoins to outpace Bitcoin, but traders should be careful as a high time frame reversal on this chart looks imminent.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has finally broken our diagonal resistance, which could explain some of the static in the “up-only” market structures in both crypto and legacy markets. This isn’t necessarily bearish for assets priced in USD, but it does suggest they won’t continue in the same straight-upwards momentum they’ve had since March 2020.
