Bitcoin (BTCUSD) (3-day/8-hour chart)
After a rough couple of weeks for Bitcoin Bulls, some signs of hope for a reversal are beginning to appear.
When we zoom out to our 3-day chart on the left, we can see that support showed up right on time in our green zone, and we currently hover beneath the orange “neutral” zone in the low $40k zone. A high time frame close above the orange box would be a good start, but bulls still need to clear the previous high to “confirm” a reversal and breakout.
When zooming in slightly to the 8-hour candles on the right, we see a short-term battleground for momentum at the $37-$38k zone. A solid candle body through this box, followed by a wick back to it (the “retest”) with some upside follow-through is what bulls want to see.
We look somewhat in limbo, with prices as low as $25k remaining a serious possibility.
Look for reactions or candle closes around levels of significance for clues as to where we are headed next.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) (3-day/8-hour chart)
While Ethereum and the overall altcoin market have struggled alongside Bitcoin in recent weeks, we do see some positive signs on the chart.
Seeing these 3-day candles closing above the $2,200 area with sizable lower wicks is a sign of serious demand for ETH at these levels. When we look at the 8-hour chart, and a new fib retracement range, we see our “neutral” orange box showing the beginnings of a resistance flipping to support. We will want to see some follow-through before confidence builds.
Bulls need to clear the $3,200 area with strength to regain control, and we don’t want to see the price go far below $2,400 or bears could find further momentum.
Fundamentals & Correlations
As we go back to our trusty correlation indicators of Bitcoin’s Market Share in Crypto (BTC.D) and the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), we find more evidence to ease some fear out in the Cryptosphere.
Bitcoin’s market share is still at healthy levels for altcoins to get some relief, and the DXY has just broken through this long-held diagonal support, which could mean overall bullishness for all assets priced in $USD — stocks, crypto, everything.
With plenty of FUD headlines and rampant fear throughout Crypto social media, the contrarian move would be to start buying the blood. As we said above, things look hopeful but remain in a sort of limbo state until there are some confirmations on higher time-frame candle closes.