Bitcoin (BTCUSD) (3-day/8-hour comparison)
Bitcoin’s rally last week was brought to a halt with a harsh rejection from the $45k area, which looks very troubling for bulls on our 3-day macro range.
The rejection from our orange “neutral” zone brings our sub $30k prices back into play. The recent rally now looks like a standard bearish retest of previous support turned into resistance. On our 8-hour chart, we’ve got a nearly confirmed short setup with price still hovering in our red “sell” zone. If bulls can’t get us back over $45k, things look rather grim.
Friday’s news of trouble with Russia and the Ukraine sent equities and crypto into a rapid sell off to close out the week. Volatility and uncertainty seem to be what we can expect in all markets in the coming days.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) (3-day/8-hour comparison)
Ethereum is looking a bit precarious with the rejection from our $3200 level for bulls to beat. On our 3-day chart we see price back below our “neutral” zone, with sub $2000 prices back in the running.
On our 8-hour chart, we can see a textbook short setup playing out, with our red “sell” zone acting as resistance after the rejection from the recent highs. If bulls can reclaim $3200 area and hold it as support, they will regain control, but for now the bears are winning the battle.
Fundamentals & Correlations (Weekly)
BTC dominance (BTC.D) has risen a bit the past few weeks, but still well below the 51% mark that would impact altcoins on every little move from BTC. Alts can still find some room to breathe and move independently, but as BTC marketshare grows, they are more impacted by any moves from the top crypto asset.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be rebounding, giving already bearish equities and crypto markets a further push to accelerate things downward. If the dollar continues to strengthen, we will see more bloodshed in all markets.