Bitcoin (BTCUSD) (3-day / 12-hour Comparison)
In this side-by-side comparison of the 3-Day and 12-hour charts and bull case/bear case fib ranges, not much has changed for Bitcoin in the past week.
Confirmation remains uncertain without additional movement. Bulls won’t be in the clear with confidence until they clear the $65k mark with a high time frame candle close, and the fate of bears relies heavily on the $54k zone remaining as support.
As we zoom out, the more favorable it looks for the bulls. It should be noted that even though the price is lingering in the Optimal Short Zone based on Fibonacci levels, things look less than ideal to short here. As consolidation beneath resistance continues, lower timeframe conditions grow in bullishness.
As always, it’s best to zoom out, pick spots that will confirm a direction, and let time pass and price action develop.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) (3-day / 8-hour Comparison)
Ethereum being back over $2,000 is a clear sign of bull strength and when compared to Bitcoin, it looks more favorable for expansion.
Based on the 3-day fib range on the left, bulls are close to a confirmed breakout if they can close this candle or the next above the $2,192 red line. When zooming in on the 8-hour range, it seems like a break below $1963.50 would confirm a retrace.
When ETH looks healthy, altcoins typically present similarly. Now is when traders should start evaluating their portfolio allocation to alts and consider going heavier if conditions remain. Historically, a bullish Ethereum is one of the pre-requisites and is typically a catalyst for alts to go on major runs.
Fundamentals & Correlations
Next on our checklist is Bitcoin Market Dominance (BTC.D) and the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY). BTC.D still has some ways to go, but if it continues to drop as Ethereum appreciates, this is another clear indicator of capital flowing from Bitcoin into the greater crypto market and reveals potential altcoin opportunities ahead.
If we look at DXY, it’s appearing to have reached a top on its low-strength rally of late. The zoomed-out macro pattern we’ve covered in previous updates of a double-top is still on the table, and if DXY falls, all assets appreciate in US Dollar value.